Are Millionaires Moving to Portugal in 2026?

The wealth migration headlines went quiet. Portugal’s records didn’t.

Yes, wealth is moving to Portugal — but not in the way the headlines suggested. The best-known figure, a projected net inflow of 1,400 millionaires, was a 2025 modelled estimate that its publisher left out of the 2026 edition after its method was publicly challenged. Portugal’s own records tell a firmer story: 181,000 resident dollar millionaires, 2,187 residents worth over $30 million, up 50% in five years, and American residents up fivefold since 2019.

This matters to anyone using headlines to make a decision. The main qualification: most foreign arrivals in Portugal are labour migration, not wealth migration, and the two must be separated before the numbers mean anything.

Why the headline number went quiet

For several years, one figure dominated coverage of private wealth movement: Henley & Partners’ annual projection of net millionaire inflows by country. Its 2025 edition placed Portugal seventh in the world at a net 1,400, with the United Kingdom losing 16,500.

In July 2025, Tax Policy Associates published an analysis questioning the method, which relied partly on professional-network location data. Henley announced an independent audit in August 2025. No findings have been published, and the 2026 edition carries no migration figures at all. It ranks countries instead on a Wealth Mobility Competitiveness Score — placing Portugal sixth of sixteen “mobility leaders,” at 72.5 — built on tax, investor routes, rule of law, quality of life, and family inclusion, with weights undisclosed.

Henley sells investment-migration services, which is worth knowing when reading any of its figures.

The practical consequence is that anyone still quoting “1,400 millionaires a year” is quoting a dated projection whose publisher stepped back from it. The firmer evidence now sits elsewhere.

The wealth base: what independent measures show

Two measures built on different methods point the same way.

UBS counts 181,000 dollar millionaires resident in Portugal at the end of 2025, up 6,000 in a year, or 3.4% — about 2.1% of adults. That share sits below France, Spain, and Italy, which is the room still to grow.

Knight Frank models 2,187 residents worth more than $30 million, up from 1,462 in 2021, against roughly 26% growth for Europe as a whole over the same period, with 2,452 forecast for 2031.

Henley’s city data separately counts 22,200 millionaires in Lisbon by liquid wealth, 50th among world cities.

These cannot be added together. UBS counts net worth including property; Henley counts liquid wealth only; Knight Frank models a population above a threshold. A euro that rose roughly 9% against the dollar in 2025 also flatters every eurozone dollar figure. But three methods agreeing on direction is more persuasive than any single number.

The cleanest signal in the official data

Portugal’s migration agency, AIMA, counts every foreign resident and every permit issued. Most of that movement is not wealth: 1,585,854 foreign residents at the end of 2025 are predominantly labour migrants from Brazil and South Asia.

The way to separate the two is in Eurostat’s classification of first residence permits by reason. Permits issued for “other reasons” — neither work, family, nor study — are where Portugal’s passive-income and remote-work routes appear.

Share of 2025 permits issued for “other reasons”:

United States — 58%
United Kingdom — 53%
Brazil — under 6%
India — under 6%

More than half of American and British permits were for neither work, family, nor study. For Brazilians and Indians, the overwhelming majority were for employment or family. That single comparison is the clearest official evidence available of who is moving wealth rather than labour.

Who is actually moving wealth, corridor by corridor

United States. 21,293 residents at the end of 2025, five times the 2019 figure and still rising 10.6% a year. The leading Golden Visa nationality since 2023, with 535 permits in 2025. Henley reports Americans as more than 30% of its 2025 applicants. The clearest wealth signal of any corridor.

United Kingdom. 47,726 residents, flat since the post-Brexit registration wave. Golden Visa permits rose to 252. HMRC counted about 9,000 non-dom departures in the final year of the old regime; the first post-reform figures arrive in 2027. A strong signal at modest volume.

France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Together 137,808 residents, growing 2.7% to 7.4% a year. EU citizens need no permit, so permit data understates this corridor considerably. French buyers remain the largest EU group in the housing market.

Brazil. 493,622 residents — 31% of all foreigners — with 94% of permits for work or family. But a distinct high-end tier exists: Brazilians were the largest foreign-born home buyers in 2025, at 9,808 homes, and Savills names them as Portugal’s key wealth market. Two migrations sharing one nationality.

China. Residents fell 14% in 2025 to 26,395. Golden Visa permits recovered to 392, second behind the United States. Investor-led, with a shrinking resident base.

India. Residents grew from 17,619 in 2019 to 91,405, the third-largest nationality. Ninety percent of 2025 permits were for employment. The investor tier — 170 Golden Visa permits — is small but present.

The Gulf. Resident counts are tiny: 112 Saudi nationals, 41 Kuwaitis, 25 Emiratis, 12 Qataris. The corridor is capital and access rather than residence — a Saudi investment company establishing a holding in Gaia in July 2026, restored daily Doha–Lisbon flights, and the EU–GCC summit on 24 October expected to open the Schengen visa-waiver process for five Gulf states.

The Golden Visa investor base turned over

2025 was the second-highest year on record, with property excluded from the program since October 2023. The investor base is no longer predominantly Chinese, and that shift changes who is buying and what they want.

Why wealth is moving in 2026

Wealth moves when rules change at home or improve abroad, and 2025 and 2026 produced more of both than usual.

The United Kingdom abolished the non-domiciled regime in April 2025 and extended inheritance tax to the worldwide assets of long-term residents.

Italy raised its flat tax for new residents to €300,000 from 2026, plus €50,000 per family member — still attractive at the top, considerably pricier than two years ago.

France rejected the proposed 2% “Zucman” wealth tax, but its 2026 budget introduced a 20% tax on non-professional assets held in holding companies above €5 million, and the 2027 election adds uncertainty.

The Netherlands capped its expatriate 30% ruling in 2026 and cuts it to 27% from 2027.

Portugal tightened too. Citizenship now requires ten years of legal residence — seven for EU and Portuguese-speaking nationals — counted from the first residence card. A flat 7.5% transfer tax now applies to residential purchases by non-residents, refundable if the buyer becomes tax resident within two years. Because the standard rate on higher-value homes is already 7.5%, that change bites mainly below roughly €1.15 million.

But Portugal kept what mattered most. The IFICI regime remains open to qualifying professionals. The Golden Visa remains open through funds and cultural donation. There is still no general wealth tax, and no inheritance tax in the direct line. The 2027 State Budget proposal delivered on 8 October identifies no change to IFICI, the non-resident transfer tax, or the Golden Visa.

Europe is tightening. Portugal is tightening less.

Capital that moves without people

Institutional money follows different logic from private relocation, but answers the same question of where foreign capital trusts Portugal.

Foreign direct investment in Portuguese real estate reached €3.9 billion in 2025, up 10.4% — 46% of all inbound FDI, according to Banco de Portugal. Commercial property investment reached €2.9 billion, 61% international. In the first half of 2026, hotels were 96% foreign-bought.

The buyers range from a Canadian pension fund financing Iberian student housing to US and UK capital acquiring Penha Longa Resort in Sintra. Capital is arriving in volume even where residents are not.

Five questions to ask of any wealth migration headline

A reusable test for the next report that lands in your inbox.

1. Is it a count or a model? Government records and central-bank figures count. Most headline millionaire numbers are modeled estimates, and a model’s output is only as good as its inputs.

2. Who published it, and what do they sell? Several leading wealth reports are produced by firms selling migration, property, or advisory services. That does not make them wrong, but it should shape how much weight they carry.

3. What exactly is being measured? Net worth including property, liquid wealth only, or a population above a threshold. Figures built on different definitions cannot be added or compared directly.

4. Is it separating wealth from labour? Total foreign arrivals say little about wealth. The useful signal is the share of arrivals on passive-income, remote-work, and investor routes.

5. What has changed since it was produced? Tax regimes, visa rules, and currencies have moved repeatedly since 2023. A 2025 projection may describe a world that no longer exists.

Luznur Capital maintains a Wealth Migration Monitor that tracks these sources side by side, with every figure rated by how firm it is and updated as new editions are published. For families planning a move, the firm’s Family Offices & Private Capital practice coordinates the property decision with legal and tax partners.

What this means for a buyer

The demand is real and it is changing shape. American and British buyers moving for lifestyle and passive income, a Brazilian high-end tier, and institutional capital arriving without residents. That mix affects which markets strengthen and which buyers will be on the other side of an eventual sale.

The rules are moving, but in Portugal’s relative favor. Portugal tightened citizenship and non-resident transfer tax while competitors raised thresholds and abolished regimes. The structural advantages — no wealth tax, nil direct-line succession, residency routes still open — remain intact.

Headlines are a poor basis for a decision. The most-quoted figure in this market was a projection its own publisher stepped back from. Official records are slower and less dramatic, and considerably more reliable.

How Luznur Capital works

Luznur Capital, a trading name of Lusomena Investments, Unipessoal Lda., is a real estate brokerage and advisory firm licensed by IMPIC under AMI 22354 and a registered member of APEMIP.

Reading the data honestly. Market evidence is presented with its source and its limitations, including where estimates are disputed. Decisions should rest on what is counted, not what is projected.

Sequencing the move before the property. Tax residence, residency route, and structure are settled with legal and tax partners before a property is identified.

Off-market access. In prime Lisbon, Cascais, Comporta, and the Algarve, a meaningful share of the better property never reaches a portal.

FURTHER READING

Wealth Migration Monitor — every figure in this article, sourced and rated, updated as new editions are published.

Golden Visa Monitor — permits by nationality and route, and how the investor base has shifted since property was excluded.

Portugal for American buyers — the fastest-growing wealth corridor, and the tax position Americans carry with them.

Portugal for British buyers and retirees — what changed after non-dom abolition, and what it means for a move to Portugal.

FAQ

Are millionaires moving to Portugal?
Yes, though more steadily than headlines suggested. UBS counts 181,000 dollar millionaires resident in Portugal at the end of 2025, up 3.4% in a year. Knight Frank models 2,187 residents worth more than $30 million, up 50% since 2021. Official records show American residents up fivefold since 2019, with most of their permits issued for passive-income and remote-work routes.

What happened to Henley’s millionaire migration figures?
Henley & Partners’ 2025 report projected a net inflow of 1,400 millionaires to Portugal, seventh in the world. Its method was publicly questioned by Tax Policy Associates in July 2025, Henley announced an independent audit in August 2025 with no findings published, and its 2026 edition carries no migration figures. It ranks Portugal sixth of sixteen “mobility leaders” on a competitiveness score instead.

How many foreigners live in Portugal?
1,585,854 foreign residents at the end of 2025, about 14% of the population, according to AIMA. Most of this is labour migration, predominantly from Brazil and South Asia. Wealth migration is a much smaller share and has to be identified separately.

How can wealth migration be separated from labour migration?
The clearest official signal is Eurostat’s classification of first residence permits by reason. Permits issued for “other reasons” — neither work, family, nor study — capture passive-income and remote-work routes. In 2025, 58% of American and 53% of British permits fell into that category, against under 6% for Brazilians and Indians.

Which nationality leads Portugal’s Golden Visa?
The United States, with 535 permits in 2025, followed by China at 392 and the United Kingdom at 252. Americans have led since 2023. In 2019 China held 27% of permits and the United States 4%; by 2025 those shares were 15% and 20%.

Why are wealthy people leaving other European countries?
Rule changes. The UK abolished its non-dom regime in April 2025 and extended inheritance tax to worldwide assets of long-term residents. Italy raised its flat tax for new residents to €300,000. France introduced a 20% tax on non-professional assets in holdings above €5 million. The Netherlands cut its expatriate tax ruling.

Has Portugal also tightened its rules?
Yes, but less than competitors. Citizenship now requires ten years of legal residence from the first card, and a flat 7.5% transfer tax applies to residential purchases by non-residents, mainly affecting homes below roughly €1.15 million. Portugal kept the IFICI regime, the Golden Visa fund and donation routes, no general wealth tax, and nil inheritance tax in the direct line.

Is foreign investment in Portuguese real estate growing?
Yes. Foreign direct investment in Portuguese real estate reached €3.9 billion in 2025, up 10.4%, according to Banco de Portugal. Commercial property investment reached €2.9 billion, 61% international, and hotels in the first half of 2026 were 96% foreign-bought.

Are Gulf investors moving to Portugal?
Mostly capital rather than people. Resident counts are very small — 112 Saudi nationals, 41 Kuwaitis, 25 Emiratis, 12 Qataris. But Gulf capital and connectivity are growing, and the EU–GCC summit on 24 October 2026 is expected to open the Schengen visa-waiver process for five Gulf states.

Is this article investment or immigration advice?
No. It presents publicly available data as of October 2026. Several figures are modeled estimates and are labeled as such. Relocation, tax, and residency decisions require advice specific to the individual circumstances.

DISCLAIMER

Important information

This article is provided for general information only and reflects publicly available data as of October 2026. It does not constitute investment, tax, immigration, or legal advice, and is not a recommendation regarding any relocation, residency route, property, or transaction.

Figures are attributed to their publishers. Official statistics derive from AIMA, INE, Eurostat, HMRC, and Banco de Portugal. Industry figures derive from published research by UBS, Knight Frank, Savills, Henley & Partners, and others, several of which sell migration, property, or advisory services. Modeled estimates are labeled as such, and the millionaire migration projections of Henley & Partners have been publicly disputed. Wealth measures from different publishers rest on different definitions and cannot be combined or directly compared. Shares derived by Luznur Capital from published figures are identified as derivations in the accompanying Wealth Migration Monitor.

Tax and residency rules referenced in Portugal and elsewhere are summarized at a general level and are subject to change. Corridor assessments are Luznur Capital’s own interpretation and should be tested against a specific situation before any decision.

Luznur Capital is a trading name of Lusomena Investments, Unipessoal Lda., a real estate brokerage and advisory firm licensed by IMPIC under AMI 22354 and a registered member of APEMIP. It is not a law firm, tax practice, or immigration adviser. Independent professional advice should be obtained before any decision.

Data as of October 2026, attributed to its publishers. Several figures are modeled estimates and one widely quoted projection is disputed; figures from different sources cannot be combined. Not investment, tax, or immigration advice. Luznur Capital (Lusomena Investments, Unipessoal Lda., AMI 22354).

Reading the flows for your own move

The reports describe a pattern. A relocation turns on one family, one tax position, and one timeline — and that is worth working through before a property is chosen.

Luznur Capital, a trading name of Lusomena Investments, Unipessoal Lda. (AMI 22354), advises international buyers and investors across Lisbon, Cascais, Sintra, the Setúbal peninsula, Comporta and the Alentejo, the Algarve including Quinta do Lago and Tavira, the Silver Coast, Porto and Braga, the Douro and the Minho, and Madeira, including off-market opportunities, with coordinated legal, tax, and immigration partners — and on mandates of any size in any region of mainland Portugal and the islands.

To discuss a specific mandate, contact info@luznurcapital.com.