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info@luznurcapital.com Where foreign capital is moving in Portuguese real estate.
Who is buying from abroad, what they pay, and the prices, policy and projects around them. Every figure is tied to its source, and anything we could not confirm is marked.
Figures verified as at 9 October 2026. We update this monitor as new releases come out rather than leave dated figures in place.
Four things to know this quarter.
Non-residents bought 4.7% of homes in H1 2026 but 7.7% of value. They paid about €435k per home on average, against about €256k for residents. US citizens received the most Golden Visa permits in 2025.
61–65% of the €1.4bn in commercial investment in H1 2026 came from abroad. Hotels and retail took about two-thirds of it.
A flat 7.5% IMT has applied to non-resident home purchases since 25 May 2026. It is refunded if the buyer becomes tax-resident within two years or lets the home at a moderate rent.
House prices rose 16.5% year on year in Q2 2026, the fastest in the EU, while transactions fell 6.4%. 12-month Euribor is back above 3% after two ECB hikes.
Who is investing from abroad, and how much.
INE classifies home buyers by tax domicile, not nationality. "Non-resident" therefore includes Portuguese emigrants and excludes foreigners already living in Portugal. For the buying process itself, see Buying Property in Portugal.
Homes bought by non-residents
Dwellings per year, by buyer's tax domicile
Data table
INE via AICCOPN, IPHab 2025 note (24 Mar 2026). 2025 was the third consecutive annual fall.
Small share of deals, bigger share of value
Non-resident share of residential transactions, %
Calculated from INE counts and values. H1 2026: 4.7% of units, 7.7% of value.
Average price paid, 2025
€ per home, by buyer's tax domicile
Data table
DerivedD from INE 2025 transaction values ÷ counts. Non-EU buyers paid about twice the resident average.
The non-resident premium by region
Median price per m², Q1 2026
Data table
INE, Local Housing Price Statistics Q1 2026 (17 Jul 2026). In Lisbon municipality (12 months to Mar 2026): €6,325/m² non-resident vs €5,000 resident.
Where non-residents buy
Share of non-resident home purchases by region, 2025
| Region | Share of homes | Share of value |
|---|---|---|
| Algarve | 29.7% | 42.4% |
| Grande Lisboa | 12.5%U | 22.2% |
| Norte | 20.0% | 12.1% |
| Centro | 14.9% | – |
INE, House Price Index Q4 2025 (23 Mar 2026). The Grande Lisboa share of homes is from idealista citing INE.
Who the foreign buyers are.
INE counts buyers by country of birth, once a year, for households only. Most foreign-born buyers already live in Portugal: 34,838 of the 41,086 homes they bought in 2025 were bought by tax residents. Golden Visa permits show the international investor more directly.
Homes bought by foreign-born buyers, 2025
Top 15 countries of birth, household buyers
Data table
INE, House Price Index Q4 2025, annual analysis (23 Mar 2026), Fig. 16. Year-on-year changes other than Brazil, Angola and France are calculatedD.
Average price paid, by country of birth
€ per home, 2025. Slate bar: Portugal-born buyers.
Data table
INE, same release. UK and US buyers paid more than twice the Portugal-born average.
Golden Visa permits by nationality, 2025
Main-applicant permits granted (top 8 of 2,685)
Data table
AIMA, Migration and Asylum Report 2025, p. 17 (Sep 2026); SEF via ECO News (cumulative).
Golden Visa permits issued
Main applicants per year. Real estate routes closed October 2023.
Data table
SEF via ECO News (2019–22); AIMA Migration Report 2025. The 2023 figure (lighter bar) is from secondary pressU.
Foreign-born buyers over time
Homes bought by foreign-born households, residents and non-residents
Data table
INE, House Price Index Q4 2025, Fig. 14.
What foreign capital buys.
INE does not split foreign purchases by apartment or house, new or existing, or price band. The official data below covers the whole market. Evidence on what foreign buyers choose comes from brokers and is marked as such.
Apartments vs houses
Bank appraisal value, € per m², August 2026
Data table
INE bank appraisal survey via RTP (Sep 2026). Appraisals for mortgages, not sale prices. Apartments +17.0% y/y, houses +12.6%. Apartments were 62% of appraisalsD.
New vs existing homes, 2025
| Homes | Value | Avg priceD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing | 136,245 | €30.5bn | ~€224k |
| New | 33,567 | €10.7bn | ~€319k |
| All homes | 169,812 | €41.2bn | ~€243k |
| Non-resident buyers | 8,471 | €3.4bn | ~€400k |
INE via Notícias ao Minuto (23 Mar 2026); INE local prices Q1 2026.
What brokers see foreign buyers choosing
| Signal | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon prime buyers led by the US, France, Brazil, UK and China. Prime Cascais homes trade at €2–3m; Comporta beachfront above €16,000/m². | Knight Frank, Lisbon Insight 2026 | Industry data |
| Foreigners make up over 30% of Algarve home purchases and over 80% of the luxury segment. Quinta do Lago and Vale do Lobo villas €8,000–12,000/m², the best above €15,000. | QP Savills, May 2026 | Agency view |
| Foreign share of the agency's own deals: Cascais 81%, Quinta do Lago and Vale do Lobo about 80%, Vilamoura 75%, Gaia 33%, Porto 27%. In the Minho, 95% British buyers, mostly houses. | Engel & Völkers 2025–26 | Agency view |
| Foreigners are 27% of search demand for homes above €1m; about 40% in Faro district, about 20% in Lisbon and Porto. | idealista/data, Q1 2025 | Industry data |
Agency views reflect each firm's own transactions or opinion, not the whole market. No credible count of sales above €500k or €1m, or of the foreign share within them, is published.
Commercial investment, H1 2026 by sector
€ million, total €1.40bn (Savills)
Data table
Savills via Iberian Property (29 Jul 2026). JLL puts H1 at €1.42bn (+11%), 65% foreign. No broker splits foreign vs domestic capital by sector.
Commercial volume by house
Brokers measure differently, so compare within a row
| Source | 2024 | 2025 | H1 2026 | Foreign share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRE | >€2.3bn | €2.82bn | – | ~67% (2025) |
| Cushman & Wakefield | €2.17bn | €2.9bn | – | 61% (2025) |
| Savills | – | €2.7bn | €1.40bn | 61% (H1 26) |
| JLL | – | – | €1.42bn | 65% (H1 26) |
Dinheiro Vivo (4 Mar 2026); Iberian Property; 2024 figures.
Notable foreign-capital deals, 2025–2026
| Asset | Buyer | Seller | Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthia Hotel Lisbon (518 keys), 72% stake | Orion Capital Managers (Fund VI) | IHI (keeps 28%) | €150m valuation | Closed Apr 2026 · source |
| Penha Longa Resort, Sintra | L Catterton Real Estate + Cedar Capital | Carlyle | Undisclosed | Mar 2026 · source |
| Project NAU logistics portfolio | Sagax | Blackstone | €90m | Q2 2026 · source |
| Torre Oriente, Lisbon (27.6k m²) | Sonae Sierra + Bankinter JV | Union Investment | Undisclosed | Nov 2025 · source |
| Five shopping centers | Castellana Properties (Spain) | – | €323m | 2025 · source |
Prices, rents, credit and supply.
House prices, year-on-year change
INE House Price Index, % change vs same quarter a year earlier
Data table
INE, Q2 2026 release (22 Sep 2026) and earlier releases. Eurostat ranks Portugal first in the EU for Q2 2026 (euro area +4.0%).
Value of homes sold
€ billion per year
Data table
INE. 2025 was a series record: 169,812 homes, €41.2bn.
Median sale price by market
€ per m², Q1 2026
Data table
INE Local Housing Price Statistics Q1 2026 (17 Jul 2026); Madeira also DREM. Lisbon's Santo António parish (Av. Liberdade, Príncipe Real): €6,986/m² over 12 months to Mar 2026.
Median rent on new leases
€ per m² per month, Q2 2026
Data table
INE rent statistics, Q2 2026 (29 Sep 2026). INE changed its rent method from Q1 2026, so long series are not directly comparable.
12-month Euribor
%, month-end values; latest 8 Oct 2026
Data table
EMMI data via euribor-rates.eu. ECB deposit rate 2.50% since 16 Sep 2026 after hikes in June and September (ECB).
Credit and supply
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% |
| New mortgage rate, Aug 2026S | ~3.0% |
| Max debt-service-to-income, from 1 Aug 2026 | 45% |
| Dwellings licensed, 2025 | 48,844 |
| Dwellings completed, 2025 | 30,425 |
| Completions, Q2 2026 (new family housing) | 7,437 ▲ 11.6% |
| Accumulated housing deficit, last decade | ~300,000 |
INE construction statistics (17 Jul, 11 Sep 2026); Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin (Jun 2026). The mortgage rate is Doutor Finanças citing Banco de Portugal.
Prime and luxury signals
| Lisbon prime prices, Knight Frank PGCI Q1 2026 | +3.4% y/y · 15th of 46 |
| Grândola (Comporta), median ask >€1m homes | €14,286/m² |
| Castro Marim, median ask >€1m homes | €12,626/m² |
| Loulé, median ask >€1m homes | €10,804/m² ▲ 19% |
| Porto, median ask >€1m homes | €4,977/m² |
Knight Frank (9 Jul 2026); idealista/data Q2 2026 luxury asking prices. Asking prices, not transactions.
Price forecasts
| Source | 2026 | 2027 | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Ratings | +10% | +5.5% | Jul 2026 |
| Fitch | +15% | – | Mar 2026 |
| Household expectations (BdP survey) | +7% | – | Q1 2026 |
S&P via idealista; Fitch via Essential Business (13 Mar 2026).
The rules for foreign buyers in 2026.
Portugal has chosen a tax on non-resident buyers rather than a ban. No government or major-party proposal like Spain's 100% surcharge has been found. For the residency routes in full, see our Golden Visa guide.
Current rules
| Item | Rule now | In force |
|---|---|---|
| IMT, non-resident buyers | Flat 7.5% on residential purchases, no exemptions. The difference is refunded if the buyer becomes tax-resident within 2 years, or lets the home at a moderate rent (≤ €2,300/month, ≥ 36 months in the first 5 years). On a €600k home, IMT rises from about €35.3k to €45k. | 25 May 2026 · DL 97/2026 |
| IMT, residents | 0% up to €106,346; marginal 2–8% up to €660,982; flat 6% to €1,150,853; 7.5% above. Buyers aged 35 or under are exempt from IMT and stamp duty on a first home up to €330,539. | 1 Jan 2026 · OE2026 |
| Golden Visa (ARI) | No real estate route. Main route is €500k in non-real-estate investment funds; also company capital, research, culture and job-creation routes. Permanent residence still after 5 years. | 7 Oct 2023 |
| Citizenship | 10 years' legal residence (7 for EU and CPLP nationals), counted from when the first permit is issued. Requires A2 Portuguese and a civics test. Applications filed before 19 May 2026 follow the old 5-year rule. | 19 May 2026 · LO 1/2026 |
| IFICI ("NHR 2.0") | Flat 20% on qualifying Portuguese work income for 10 years; most foreign income exempt. Limited to qualifying research, innovation and highly skilled roles. The old NHR is closed to new entrants. | 2024 |
| AIMI | Individuals: 0.7% on residential tax value above €600k (€1.2m for couples), 1% above €1m, 1.5% above €2m. Companies 0.4%. | Unchanged |
| VAT on construction | 6% (from 23%) for homes sold up to €660,982 or let up to €2,300/month. Covers projects started 25 Sep 2025 to end-2029. | 1 Jul 2026 |
| Rental income | 10% tax rate (from 25%) on moderate-rent leases up to €2,300/month. Capital gains reinvested in moderate-rent housing are excluded from tax (sales 2026–2029). | 1 Jan 2026 |
| Build-to-rent | Contracts with IHRU (up to 25 years, ≥ 70% moderate rent): IMT, stamp duty and AIMI exempt; IMI exempt up to 8 years; 6% VAT. | 1 Sep 2026 |
| Short-term rental, Lisbon | Absolute containment in Santa Maria Maior, Misericórdia, Santo António, São Vicente, Arroios and Estrela. In containment zones a registration lapses when the property is sold. | 6 Dec 2025 |
DL 97/2026; LO 1/2026; Andersen tax alert (27 May 2026); OCC note (19 Jun 2026); PLMJ on Lisbon AL. Check final figures against the Diário da República before relying on them.
How the rules changed
- Mais Habitação
Golden Visa real estate and capital-transfer routes end. New short-term rental registrations suspended.
- Old NHR closed; IFICI created
2024 State Budget.
- IMT exemption for buyers 35 and under
First home, primary residence.
- Short-term rental handed to municipalities
DL 76/2024. The extraordinary AL levy was revoked retroactively.
- Lisbon tightens short-term rental zones
Six central parishes under absolute containment.
- Citizenship clock doubles
10 years for most nationals, counted from permit issue.
- 7.5% IMT for non-resident buyers
Part of the housing tax package in DL 97/2026, alongside 10% rental tax and 6% construction VAT.
- Simplex 2.0 licensing
DL 108/2026. Electronic licensing platform mandatory in all municipalities.
- 2027 State Budget delivered
No reported changes to non-resident IMT, AIMI, IFICI or the Golden Visa.
Watch list
- 28 Oct · 24 Nov 20262027 State Budget votes
The PS has said it will abstain, so the budget is likely to pass. Youth IMT exemption rises to €338,141; the general zero-rate threshold rises to €108,792.
- 28–29 Oct 2026ECB rate decision
After two hikes, any further move feeds directly into variable-rate mortgages.
- In ParliamentRental law (NRAU) reform
Would end the 2% cap on initial rents and speed up evictions. Passed first reading on 30 Sep.
- OpenGolden Visa processing backlog
The government's target was to clear it during 2026. No confirmation it has been met.
- By 31 Dec 2026Municipal short-term rental rules
Municipalities may extend or add suspensions of new registrations until year-endU.
2027 budget: Dinheiro Vivo, idealista (8 Oct 2026). NRAU: dnoticias (30 Sep 2026).
Infrastructure, projects and commercial benchmarks.
Infrastructure that moves land values
| Project | Status | Budget | Target | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luís de Camões airport Alcochete · ANA (VINCI) | Planning | €7.9–8.9bn | 2035–2037 | 3rd of 5 technical reports delivered Jul 2026; full application due Jan 2028; construction 2029–33. Coverage cites both 2035 and 2037 for opening. source |
| High-speed rail, Porto–Oiã AVAN Norte (Mota-Engil et al.) | Contracted | >€1.6bn | 2030 | Concession signed Jul 2025; Porto/Gaia design in public consultation from Jun 2026. source |
| High-speed rail, Oiã–Soure Infraestruturas de Portugal | Tender | up to €1.6bn | Works 2027 | Two bids under review (Mota-Engil-led vs DST/Sacyr). source |
| Third Tagus crossing Chelas–Barreiro, road and rail | Studies | Not disclosed | ~2036 | Minister: must be ready with the airport; an Algés–Trafaria tunnel is also planned. source |
| Parque Cidades do Tejo Seixal, Barreiro, Almada + 5 more | No milestones | €128m cleanup | Long-term | 4,500 ha, ~26k homes planned (Mar 2025). The Seixal mayor says nothing has left paper. source |
| Lisbon Metro Circular Line Estrela, Santos | Delayed | – | Q1 2027 | Over 3 years late; lost EU recovery funding. source |
| Red Line to Alcântara 4 km, 4 stations | Delayed | €405m | 2028U | Campo de Ourique, Infante Santo, Alcântara. Delay of about 2y9m reported. |
| Porto Metro Pink Line São Bento–Casa da Música | Building | ~€420m | Q1 2027 | Works end Dec 2026, then testing. |
| Porto Metro Ruby Line Casa da Música–Santo Ovídio (Gaia) | Building | €435m+ | 2026–2027 | Phased opening; new Douro bridge in 2027. |
Major private developments
| Project | Developer | Status | Scope | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EntreCampos Lisbon, former Feira Popular | Fidelidade Property | Building | €1.3bn GDV; 330k m²; 7 office buildings, 249 flats. Banco de Portugal has signed to take a building. | 2027–2028 |
| Matinha Marvila, Lisbon | VIC Properties | Approved | ~€2bn, ~2,000 homes; first 771-home allotment approved 29 Jul 2026. | Works 2027 |
| Prata Riverside Village Marvila, Lisbon | VIC Properties | Final phase | 833 homes, 611 sold, 491 delivered. | 2026 |
| M-ODU (former Matadouro) Campanhã, Porto | Mota-Engil | Delivered | €40m; 9 office buildings and cultural space; shell and core delivered Dec 2025. | 2026 |
| Six Senses Comporta Melides | VIC Properties | Building | ~€300m; 70 keys and 58 branded residences. | 2028 |
| Park Hyatt Comporta Comporta | Coporgest | Signed | 58 keys, 22 residences, 6 villas, plus resort villas and apartments. | 2029 |
| Terras da Comporta Grândola / Alcácer | Vanguard Properties | Selling | ~1,365 ha; Dunas (2023) and Torre (2025) golf courses. | Ongoing |
| Vilamoura Lake City Algarve | Vilamoura World | Stalled | ~€650m; blocked by a negative environmental opinion. | – |
idealista news (Feb–Sep 2026), Observador (29 Jul 2026), Dinheiro Vivo, Journal des Palaces (28 Aug 2026), developer releases.
Prime yields by sector
%, Q2 2026, all unchanged quarter on quarter
Data table
CBRE, Portugal Investment Figures Q2 2026 (24 Jul 2026).
Hotels and tourism
| Non-resident tourists, 2025 | 29.9m ▲ 3.3% |
| Hotel nights, 2025 | 89.7m ▲ 1.6% |
| Hotels opened in 2025 | 83 (4,080 beds) |
| Hotels under construction to 2028 | 70 (7,520 beds) |
| Share in Lisbon metro area | ~50% |
| Hotels' share of H1 2026 investment | 36% (Savills) |
INE via ECO (9 Jul 2026); JLL via idealista.
How to read this monitor.
Figures come from official releases (INE, Banco de Portugal, ECB, AIMA, Diário da República) where available, and from brokers and press citing them otherwise. Markers: D derived by Luznur from sourced figures; S secondary source citing the primary; U a single secondary source we could not confirm. INE publishes two transaction datasets (the price index and local prices) that count deals differently, so they are never mixed in one chart. Broker investment totals use different methods and are shown side by side, not merged.
- INE, House Price Index Q2 2026, 22 Sep 2026
- INE, Local Housing Price Statistics Q1 2026, 17 Jul 2026
- INE, Rent Statistics Q2 2026, 29 Sep 2026
- INE, Construction and Housing 2025, 17 Jul 2026
- AICCOPN, INE IPHab notes, 24 Mar and 22 Sep 2026
- Banco de Portugal, Economic Bulletin, Jun 2026; FDI data via Observador/Lusa, 27 Feb 2026
- ECB, Monetary policy decision, 10 Sep 2026
- AIMA, Migration and Asylum Report 2025
- Decreto-Lei 97/2026; Lei Orgânica 1/2026; OE2026 (Lei 73-A/2025)
- CBRE, Portugal Investment Figures Q2 2026; Lisbon Office Q2 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat Q2 2026; Market Focus 2026
- Savills and JLL H1 2026 investment reports via Iberian Property
- Knight Frank, Prime Global Cities Index Q1 2026
- idealista/data, luxury asking prices Q2 2026
- S&P Global Ratings (Jul 2026); Fitch (Mar 2026)
- ECO, Observador, Dinheiro Vivo, Expresso, idealista news, Essential Business
What the data means for a specific mandate.
Market figures describe the country. A mandate turns on one asset, one structure and one timeline. We are glad to walk through how these numbers bear on yours.
This monitor is for information only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice. Tax figures summarize published legislation and should be confirmed with a qualified adviser before any transaction. Figures are attributed to their publishers; official statistics are from INE, Banco de Portugal, the ECB and AIMA.
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