Investment Returns · Portugal

Underwrite it before you fall in love with it.

Levered and unlevered IRR, equity multiple, coverage, break-even occupancy and a year-by-year cash flow — built on the real acquisition cost rather than the headline price, and with the downside shown next to the base case.

A return model is only as good as the number it starts from. Most estimators apply a generic transfer tax, ignore that financing costs are not deductible against Portuguese rental income, and present a single appreciation assumption as though it were a finding. This one carries the 2026 transfer tax tables, the new non-resident rate, and a sensitivity grid that shows how little of the projected return is actually knowable.

Updated 12 September 2026

Acquisition tax now reflects Decreto-Lei n.º 97/2026 and Ofício-Circulado n.º 40131/2026 — the 7.5% flat transfer tax on non-resident acquisitions of residential property, and the exception for buyers with a prior Portuguese tax residence. Returns are illustrative, not a forecast, and nothing here is investment or tax advice.

Transfer tax 2026 tables Output levered & unlevered IRR Optional after-tax view

The Model

Assumptions in, consequences out.

Every figure below is an assumption you control. The model does the arithmetic honestly and does not smooth anything — if the early years are cash-negative on a leveraged prime asset, it will say so.

The asset

€
€

Added to capital invested and to the acquisition base at exit.

Who is buying

Acquiring entity
Portuguese tax residence at purchase
Has been a Portuguese tax resident at some pointUnderstood to take the acquisition outside the 7.5% flat rate, with the general tables applying instead.

Financing

Funding
%
%
yrs
%

Of the loan. Mortgage stamp duty is added automatically.

Portuguese lenders advance materially less to non-resident borrowers than to residents. Test the loan-to-value you can actually obtain rather than the one that makes the return work.

Income

€
%
%

Of collected rent — management, maintenance, insurance, IMI, condominium.

%/yr
yrs
%/yr
Transaction costs, exit and the after-tax view
%

Of price, plus VAT at 23%.

€
%

Agency commission, legal and certification.

Show the position after Portuguese taxOff by default, because the rate that applies depends on residence, structure and lease type. Enter the rates your tax counsel confirms — the model will not guess them for you.

Projected IRR · levered

—

—

—

Equity multiple

—

Unlevered IRR

—

Cash on cash, yr 1

—

Net yield on cost

Transfer tax—
—
Other acquisition costsStamp duty, legal, notary, loan fees
—
Equity required
—
Year-1 net cash flowAfter costs and debt service
—
Debt service coverNOI ÷ debt service, year 1
—
Break-even occupancyWhere cash flow turns negative
—
Sale price at exit—
—
Net proceedsAfter disposal costs and loan repayment
—
Total profit over the hold
—

Illustrative projection on your assumptions. Property values and rents fall as well as rise. Not investment or tax advice.

The Detail

Year by year, and what happens when you are wrong.

A single IRR conceals more than it reveals. The schedule below shows where the money actually moves, and the grid underneath shows how much of the headline return depends on a capital growth assumption nobody can verify.

Levered IRR across growth and hold

Your base case is highlighted. Everything else in the grid is equally plausible.

A projection presented without a downside is a sales document rather than an analysis. If a deal only works at the top of the grid, it does not work.

Method

What the model does, and what it will not pretend.

Built in

The real entry cost

Transfer tax on the 2026 tables, including the flat non-resident rate and the prior-residence exception; purchase stamp duty at 0.8%; mortgage stamp duty at 0.6%; legal fees with VAT; notary, registration and any arrangement fee. Return is measured against total capital deployed, not the headline price.

Built in

The debt, properly amortized

Monthly amortization with the outstanding balance carried to the exit year, or interest-only where selected. Coverage and break-even occupancy are reported because a prime asset at a low yield can service its debt on paper and still run cash-negative in year one.

Optional

The after-tax view

Off unless you turn it on, and driven by rates you enter rather than rates we assume. One point is hard-coded because it is structural: interest is not deductible against Portuguese rental income, so the tax base excludes debt service even though your cash flow does not.

Not modeled

Structure

Corporate versus personal ownership changes the annual position, the exit treatment and the succession outcome, and the right answer differs by treaty. The model prices the asset; it does not price the wrapper.

Not modeled

Reliefs and regimes

Urban rehabilitation relief, reduced rates on qualifying moderate-rent lettings, resale exemptions for property companies, AIMI on a wider portfolio, and short-term rental licensing — each can move the answer materially, and none is a calculator question.

Not modeled

Reality

Void periods longer than your vacancy assumption, a roof, a bad tenant, a licensing change, a currency move between commitment and completion, and the possibility that the exit year is chosen for you. The grid above is the honest version of this.

Common Questions

Frequently asked.

What return should I expect from Portuguese property?

There is no single number, and anyone offering one is selling something. Prime city and resort assets generally produce low gross yields — often in the 3% to 5% range — with the return weighted toward capital growth, which is the least predictable component. Secondary cities and short-let strategies can produce more income at the cost of higher operating expense, seasonality and regulatory exposure. The model asks you for your own assumptions rather than supplying flattering ones.

What is the difference between gross yield, net yield and IRR?

Gross yield is annual rent over price. Net yield deducts operating costs and, in this model, measures against total capital deployed rather than the headline price — which is the more honest denominator once transfer tax and fees are counted. IRR goes further again: it annualizes the return across the entire hold, accounting for the timing of every cash flow, the financing and the eventual sale. It is the truest single measure, and also the easiest to inflate with an optimistic exit assumption.

Why are levered and unlevered IRR both shown?

Because the gap between them is the contribution of the debt, and it is worth seeing separately. Leverage amplifies the return when the asset outperforms the borrowing cost and amplifies the loss when it does not. Unlevered IRR tells you whether the asset itself is any good. Levered IRR tells you what the financing did to it.

Is the projection before or after tax?

Before tax unless you switch the after-tax view on, and then only at rates you enter yourself. The applicable rate depends on residence, on whether the owner is an individual or a company, on the type of lease and on the treaty position — none of which a calculator can determine. What the model does hold firm is that financing costs are not deductible against Portuguese rental income, so the tax base is computed before debt service even though your cash flow is not.

Does the model include the new non-resident transfer tax?

Yes, along with the exception. A flat 7.5% applies to non-resident acquisitions of residential property under the 2026 rules, but a buyer who has previously been a Portuguese tax resident is understood to fall outside it and to be assessed under the general tables instead. Both positions are available in the model because the difference in entry cost changes the return. Above roughly €1.15M the general tables already charge 7.5% on the whole value, so at the top of the market the two produce the same figure.

What is a sensible vacancy and operating cost assumption?

For a long-term residential let in a liquid market, single-digit vacancy and operating costs in the region of one fifth to one quarter of collected rent are a reasonable starting point once management, maintenance, insurance, municipal tax and condominium charges are counted. Short-let strategies carry materially higher costs and far greater seasonality. The break-even occupancy figure in the results is there to show how much room the assumption actually has.

Why does the year-one cash flow come out negative on a prime asset?

Because prime yields are low and amortizing debt is expensive. On a well-located asset at a 3.5% gross yield with sixty percent leverage, the debt service frequently exceeds net operating income in the early years. That is not automatically a bad investment — it is a capital growth investment with a carrying cost, and it should be recognized as such rather than discovered in year two. If the carry cannot be funded from elsewhere, the leverage is wrong for the asset.

What is the equity multiple, and why show it alongside IRR?

It is total cash returned divided by equity invested — a 1.8x multiple means the capital came back with eighty percent on top of it. IRR gives the rate, the multiple gives the scale. A very short hold can produce a flattering IRR on a trivial sum of money, and the multiple is what exposes that.

Can Luznur source and structure the investment itself?

Yes — sourcing including off-market, underwriting, negotiation, structuring with legal and tax partners, and the eventual exit. This model is a starting point for a conversation, not a substitute for diligence on a specific asset. Where the numbers on a particular opportunity do not hold up, we say so.

A Private Consultation

Send us the model and we will test it.

The asset, the market and the assumptions you are least sure about are enough to begin. We will tell you which of them we think are wrong, bring in tax and legal counsel where the structure is live, and set out what an actual acquisition would cost and return. Enquiries from advisers acting for a client are handled with the same discretion as the client's own.

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